IPPR: Earned Settlement Decision Time

Summary

IPPR estimates a £115 billion net lifetime fiscal contribution from skilled workers and adult dependants expected to settle in 2026–2030 under existing rules. The article preceded the final announcement on the same day. The analysis discusses its migration and model assumptions. An incremental comparison of five-year and ten-year settlement for the same cohort would require a separate analysis.

Why this matters for the archive

Adds a fiscal counterpoint while distinguishing lifetime contribution under existing rules from the effect of changing the settlement timetable.