Evidence Note 02
Technical analysis and workforce impact assessment of proposed retrospective settlement reform under the Earned Settlement proposal.
Summary
This publication provides a technical analysis and workforce impact assessment of proposed retrospective settlement reform under CP1448. It examines how prolonged immigration status insecurity may affect retention, workforce stability, employer investment, fiscal contribution and family integration among people already on Skilled Worker pathways. The note draws together workforce evidence, employer survey material, sector-specific retention concerns and cost analysis. It records risks associated with extended provisional status, including attrition, reduced progression incentives, lost employer sunk costs, increased household costs and constraints on housing and community integration. The publication is included in the archive as supporting analytical material for assessing the Earned Settlement proposal and its implications for existing Skilled Worker visa holders, employers and public service workforce planning.
Key Observations
Evidence observations
- Assesses the Earned Settlement proposal through workforce stability, retention, employer investment, fiscal contribution and household integration.
- Uses external workforce evidence and SWJA survey material to examine the effect of prolonged immigration status insecurity on existing Skilled Worker cohorts.
Workforce implications
- Identifies attrition and retention risks across health, care, education and other sectors dependent on Skilled Worker sponsorship.
- Records employer evidence that the existing five-year ILR pathway is treated as a critical factor in attracting and retaining overseas skilled workers.
Fiscal and household implications
- Connects early exit risk with reduced lifetime fiscal contribution and loss of employer sunk costs already invested in recruitment, sponsorship and integration.
- Identifies additional visa-related costs, housing constraints and family uncertainty as practical consequences of extending provisional status.
Access
The PDF is treated as the authoritative publication version. This HTML page provides a stable archive record for discovery, citation and internal linking.
Suggested Citation
Movement Research Unit (MRU) and Skilled Worker Justice Alliance (SWJA) (2026).
Evidence Note 02.
SWJANE02. London: Skilled Worker Justice Alliance.